Will AJ Dybantsa still be the No. 1 overall pick in 2026 NBA Draft?

SPRINGFIELD, Mass. — The Hoophall Classic is an important annual checkpoint in the high school basketball season as colleges and NBA scouts evaluate the best players. Hosted near the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame at Springfield College, everyone in the building is trying to figure out who is going to be enshrined there one day.

Many players have committed to colleges by Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, while some are starting to emerge as late bloomers. There is always something to learn about future draft classes, as the level of competition tends to bring out the best and worst of players.

The surprise this season was that what once seemed to be an ironclad lock for the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft is starting to loosen. AJ Dybantsa has been so dominant in high school that it was hard to imagine anyone could supplant him, but things are leveling out as his game is taking a sharp left turn at the moment while others are putting theirs together.

The Athletic went for the final two days of the Hoophall Classic to scout the games and speak with NBA scouts to gauge who is making their case for future drafts.

AJ Dybantsa: Learning to be a superstar

Entering this season, Dybantsa was shaping up to be one of the most prolific players to come out of high school this century. That hasn’t changed.

He is elite at his age in the skill sets relevant to a 6-foot-9 wing in the NBA. Think Jayson Tatum’s three-level playmaking and defensive technique meets Jaylen Brown’s explosiveness through the paint. He could be the most complete high school senior since LeBron James. Several NBA scouts over the past week told The Athletic he could end up being the second-best player in the NBA down the road behind Victor Wembanyama. When people talk about generational prospects, what they mean is guys like this.

Dybantsa is a terror for the defense when he attacks in the half court or transition. His drives look almost Giannis-like with the amount of force and athleticism he exhibits at the high school level. He can rise over anyone to bury shots from just about every spot on the floor. He smothers opponents defensively and makes some good plays from the help side.

The problem, which was on full display in Springfield, is that he is not consistently playing the playmaking-oriented brand of basketball that catapulted him to the top of his class. Dybantsa recently told The Athletic that the last thing he wants to be known as is a ball hog, but that is an apt description of the way he played in the first half of Utah Prep’s matchup against Montverde Academy.

The BYU commit is trying to score through double- and triple-teams repeatedly, going away from being the pass-first playmaker he has been throughout his career. It doesn’t matter if he is the most talented player out there if he is taking over to the point that the opponent doesn’t have to defend his teammates. Greatness comes with balance.

Dybantsa’s Utah Prep team fell into a massive hole in the first half because he was forcing absurd shots repeatedly, making it impossible for the team to develop an offensive rhythm. But then he led a comeback in the second half, looking more like himself by running pick-and-rolls and getting off the ball once he drew a crowd. It was an exhibition of the duality of Dybantsa, further proof that his mentality is going to determine whether he is going to be a top 5 player in the NBA. This seems like the perfect time for him to go play for Kevin Young at BYU and buy-in to his system.

While his approach to managing the game has been unproductive at times, he also has improved in some key skill areas. His power driving through defenders has reached an outlier level for a teenage wing. His footwork is top-notch, creating a low and wide base while he handles the ball that allows him to explode in either direction. Dybantsa is getting better at establishing post position and working his way into a jump hook or even just a dunk. Seeing the way he works the floor in transition, he already looks ready to start for an NBA team.

Dybantsa is highly regarded by former coaches and is widely celebrated for his character by stakeholders in the youth basketball world. His body of work with Team USA, EYBL and his junior season at Prolific Prep is significant enough that there were few people at Hoophall concerned that his current approach will continue once he is at the NBA level.

He looks like he is playing for Instagram reels at this point while he waits for college to start. But some players will give him a run for his money if he doesn’t keep growing in the right direction.

Nate Ament: Late bloomer

The newest challenger to Dybantsa’s throne atop this class, Ament is a continually evolving enigma who was the other player at Hoophall with limitless potential. He’s listed at 6 foot 9, but he’s an inch taller at the very least and will likely keep growing. It’s unclear what exactly his game is, but it’s clear that he is growing into one of those distinct players who doesn’t fit into one box.

His style is a blend of Franz Wagner and Chet Holmgren, a tall playmaker with serious shooting potential who can create in a variety of ways. Ament currently operates as a bit of a power forward who can take over playmaking duties, but he also is burying spot-up 3s, leading transition and setting up pick-and-rolls to thread pocket passes. He keeps adding components to his game every few months while he continues to grow, so he may be a different player by the time he chooses a college this year.

Particularly in a field with few knockdown shooters, a lot of the 3s he was launching looked tantalizing. He led Highland School (Va.) to a surprise win over the stacked Prolific Prep (more on their roster in a bit) by doing just about everything on the floor, from burying deep 3s to passing through traffic to locking up guards in isolation. The highlight of his night was shutting down Darryn Peterson, the best guard in high school, for the final two plays to win it.

The catch with him is twofold. He is very skinny, essentially in the opposite physical stage as Dybantsa. The difference with Holmgren at this stage was that he was aggressive and loved kicking ass. Ament is much more of a finesse player at this stage but is a good leader who elevates his teammates. And while he is building an impressive skill portfolio, there aren’t many parts of his game that are his calling card yet.

The other top players in his class have clearly defined games and NBA bodies, but Ament is the great unknown. But he was the first name discussed by every scout this weekend and their eyes lit up talking about him.

Darryn Peterson: Modern guard prototype

The standout player from Prolific Prep is the 6-foot-5 combo guard who ran the show for the most complete team this weekend. Ironically, they lost — credit to Ament’s fantastic performance — but Peterson had the best performance of the weekend. The Kansas commit has a lot of similarities to Donovan Mitchell in a taller frame, showing great balance and footwork with explosiveness to get off the ground quickly and beat everyone else to the rim. He’s an incisive passer who knows how to run a pro offense already while being a capable pull-up shooter. He also brought it on defense, both with his persistent effort and technique.

Right now, Peterson is the best player in high school basketball from a winning perspective. Dybantsa is by far the most capable, but Peterson is running a tight ship with Prolific and coach Ryan Bernardi has them executing a good system. There were a lot of teams at this tournament who couldn’t say the same.

Peterson was just so good in every phase. If he becomes a good shooter like Mitchell did after a few years in the league, he should be an All-NBA guard. If Dybantsa’s game doesn’t recalibrate back to being a playmaker throughout the game and the first overall pick is up in the air, Peterson would be the safest pick.

But Peterson isn’t the only player of note from Prolific. Their sharpshooting wing Winters Grady is ranked just 74th by 247Sports, but the Michigan commit has proven over the past two years he should be one of the best shooters in this draft. He is one of the few guys who just snaps the net every single time, drawing comparisons from several scouts to Sam Hauser and Duncan Robinson.

The key for Peterson is that he is used as a playmaker fairly often in Prolific’s system and has good defensive toughness for a 6-foot-7 guard. He appears to be one of those players who is not highly ranked because he is a role player, but his role will be valued by NBA teams in need of a seventh man.

Then there is 7-footer Obinna Ekezie Jr., a sophomore center for Prolific who dominated on both ends. He already is one of the most physically imposing players at the tournament at just 16, unsurprising since his father briefly played for the Atlanta Hawks 20 years ago. The younger Ekezie is already a target of the blue-blood schools and scouting services have him ranked everywhere from the top five to the mid-teens.

He made it clear at Hoophall that he’s an impact rim protector who also can thrive in the pick-and-roll on offense. If his passing from the post keeps improving and he can learn how to space the floor properly, he could end up high in his class.

Cameron Boozer: Just put him in the NBA

The first son of former All-Star Carlos Boozer, there are some similarities to his father’s game. Cam, who is 6-9 and 246 pounds, is a complete power forward, a three-level scorer who makes good passes and knows how to roll behind the defense. He could end up the favorite for national player of the year for Duke next season. Boozer can create from the elbows and handle either aspect of the pick-and-roll. He has trended to be more of a post-up big in high school but could thrive as a bigger wing like Paolo Banchero once he hits the league. Good thing he’s going to Duke.

Boozer’s spot-up 3 was on point Monday and he had several impressive moments in transition. His touch is reliable across the court and in everything from hook shots to deep pull-ups. He should be able to defend 3-through-5 and is very smart at racking up deflections, though we’ll see at Duke if he can play the more classic five in the NBA.

His game is not so much thrilling as it is thorough and consistent, but his special skill is his outlet passing. In an era where bigs are grabbing rebounds and racing up the floor — he can do that as well — he is precise with his full-court passes, finding his teammates leaking out behind the defense. He had one particularly impressive deep ball that threaded the needle between two defenders. His brother, Cayden, a big point guard joining him at Duke, is an impressive game manager who could have an Andrew Nembhard-esque path to the league.

Facing the Boozers was Koa Peat of Perry High School (Ariz.), a five-star senior who already has the physique of a professional bodybuilder. But going against Boozer, the gulf in their skill sets was apparent. Peat could not create his shot effectively throughout the game and struggled to get into the flow of the game on both ends.

He is one of the top prospects in the 2026 draft class but still needs to build his creativity on the ball to be a lottery pick. This game was fairly slow, so Peat could be a better fit with an uptempo team that lets him fly in transition.

However, his sophomore teammate Bruce Branch III shows real promise. He is a wing with a huge wingspan, good shot creation skills and energy in transition. He got some deflections and showed he can score in a variety of ways.

Kiyan Anthony: Well-rounded wing

Carmelo Anthony’s son plays a slightly different game than his father, but he is showing all the makings of a valuable role player in the NBA. He led Long Island Lutheran to back-to-back wins over the weekend, doing a little bit of everything on both ends. The shooting guard looks good both as a spot-up shooter on the move and attacking closeouts. He is patient with his drives, getting two feet in the paint and then using his strength to fake his way to an opening.

He steadily scores with patience and technique when he puts the ball on the floor. His defense is well-rounded for a 6-5 guard, so the question will be whether he can bulk up more at Syracuse next season to handle defending twos and threes in the NBA. The trait that stands out is his positive energy with his teammates and consistency, exhibiting a lot of culture-fit qualities that can make him a target for playoff teams. He has the potential to be a solid 3-and-D player who can make good decisions when he gets run off the line, so there is certainly a place for him in the league if he can become a knockdown shooter.

Perhaps the most promising player on Anthony’s team is wing Dylan Mingo, who is ranked in the top 20 of the 2027 draft class and could leap up the board if he can refine his jump shot. The 6-foot-5 Mingo — whose older brother, Penn State commit Kayden, is the team’s point guard — could become one of the best defenders in his age group while having offensive skills to be a good second-action creator. He doesn’t get off the ground well when he drives through traffic but he has wide shoulders and good footwork that can give him an edge once his body fills out. He shows enough creativity and motor to become one of the most fun players in his class next year.

Final thoughts

At the top of this draft, Dybantsa should right the ship and hold on to the No. 1 spot. His game right now does not match the way he has carried himself off the court for the past several years. He is ready for the pros and should adjust accordingly when he is no longer the best player on the floor. He has always embraced being coached hard and should benefit well from a pro-level coach at BYU.

By the time June 2026 rolls around, Ament really could be the second pick in the draft. Having seen him twice in person over the past two months, you can already see growth in his game. It’s hard to capture what makes him unique because he just does so many impressive things in such a long but slight frame. He has potential but looks like he is capable of just about anything without making you feel confident he can do it throughout a game. But most of the scouts in attendance seemed to agree that they liked his growth enough to start the hype train.

Peterson and Boozer have a kinship in being tweeners who are good enough to do everything at their position(s) but don’t have that anomalous upside, which makes Dybantsa and Ament so enticing. But this draft is going to be a huge upgrade from 2024, full of potential franchise cornerstones.

(Top photo of AJ Dybantsa and CJ Ingram: John Jones / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)