Winnipeg has had every opportunity to dive headlong into its customary end-of-January slump. A flu bug has been running through the roster for weeks. Adam Lowry is injured. Mark Scheifele left the game twice during the first period of Winnipeg’s 5-2 win over Calgary on Sunday night, briefly putting Vladislav Namestnikov and Rasmus Kupari at the top of the Jets’ depth chart at centre.
How are the Jets avoiding their annual tailspin?
The standard-issue, out-of-market response heaps credit upon Connor Hellebuyck while ignoring the process in front of him. We’re very much in-market here, though, and the Jets have improved to 34-14-3. They’ve won three straight games since their dizzyingly poor performance in Utah, so Winnipeg’s success is worth a deeper look.
Imperfections exist, but today’s article is a deserved series of positive storylines.
Cheveldayoff on Jets’ second-half slides
I’m a big believer in the idea that identifying and understanding problems is the first step toward solving them.
Last year’s league-leading Jets lost three in a row to end January, then extended their losing streak to five games on the February side of the All-Star break. They were able to right the ship for a little while, then dropped six straight in March before their season-ending eight-game win streak. The year before, the Western Conference-leading Jets dropped five of seven games to end January, then went 3-5-1 through February and 7-7-1 in March.
It goes on like that. A late winter slide ended Winnipeg’s playoff hopes in 2021-22 after Paul Maurice stepped down; Maurice’s team held on to a playoff spot, but Dave Lowry’s team lost it in January and February. In 2018-19, when the Jets were thought to be Stanley Cup favourites, a second-half slide took the Jets from first in the West to their first-round matchup with St. Louis — the eventual Cup champion.
When the Jets dropped a dismal performance in Utah on Monday, Jets fans wouldn’t have been out of place to feel a sense of “here we go again.”
Two days after that performance, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff didn’t shy away from Winnipeg’s second-half struggles. Do the Jets also see these struggles, and could coach Scott Arniel’s fiery postgame comments have been designed to nip them in the bud?
“From my perspective, certainly you have seen different trends like that … where you’ve had dips like right around this area here,” Cheveldayoff said in Denver last week. “I just think that it’s about trying to set that standard and hold that standard. Every coach is different on how they handle it.”
GO DEEPER
Jets’ trade deadline plans, interest in Jonathan Toews: 5 takeaways from GM Kevin Cheveldayoff
Cheveldayoff then opined that 82 games make for a long season — that it’s hard to establish intensity, maintain it for the full season, and then find a way to elevate that intensity in the playoffs. He also wondered if player management played a role.
“Whether it’s injury or whether it’s burnout, sometimes you’ve got to be careful that you don’t push too hard early because you get to that point where it’s maybe ‘I don’t want to hear this anymore,’” Cheveldayoff said. “You have to be strategic. There’s 20 (players in the lineup) at any given time — there’s 20 individual elite hockey players there that (Arniel has to) massage and maneuver.”
His closing statement was fascinating: “There’s lots of competing interests for lots of different things. Hockey’s a game played on the ice (but) it’s a business off the ice. It’s a passion, it’s their job.”
Read into that what you will but I’ve talked to enough players who have expressed similar sentiments that the season is long and maintaining league-leading focus is difficult. It may be that, once Winnipeg has cemented playoff spots in recent seasons, the focus has changed from 200-foot dominance to point-getting and self-preservation. Recall that former coach Rick Bowness explained his quotes about a lack of pushback in Round 1 against Vegas by saying he’d seen the Jets make the same puck management mistakes in January and February.
“It’s the same crap we saw in February,” Bowness said after Winnipeg lost to Vegas in five games. “As soon as we were challenging for first place and teams were coming after us, we had no pushback. This series, we had no pushback. Their better players were so much better than ours, it wasn’t even close.”
Bowness was much happier with Winnipeg’s effort against Colorado last playoffs, despite the similar result. He talked about the pride he felt in his team for their growth in that regard. It seems to me the Jets have continued down that path of growth for most of this season. There is a law of diminishing returns, of course — it’s not as simple as getting 5 to 10 percent better and putting things in cruise control — but elevated standards and a greater degree of consistency have been hallmarks of Winnipeg’s season.
The Jets were awful in Utah. Arniel was livid. And now it seems as though the Jets have woken up. They fended off a potent Avalanche attack on Wednesday before back-to-back 5-2 wins against Utah and Calgary. Both teams had played the night before, so let’s not get carried away, but this is a massive moment to mark in Winnipeg’s season. It seems coaching and management are both aware of the risks to this portion of the schedule and that the players have responded in turn.
Rasmus Kupari has played well with Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton. (James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)
Kupari’s impact, Lowry’s irreplaceable role
Adam Lowry is not expected back before February’s break for the 4 Nations Face-Off. It’s a big loss that could be made much worse without the two-week pause; Lowry would miss eight games if he returns after the break as opposed to roughly 15 in a regular season.
Lowry is Winnipeg’s de facto No. 2 centre. He plays a shutdown role against elite competition — and does so while starting three shifts in his own end for every shift he starts in the offensive zone. It’s the kind of concentrated defensive usage that lends a whoa to Lowry’s 44-point pace and suggests he, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton might not get enough credit for their offensive abilities. Combine all of that with the way Lowry’s line drives results — hardnosed play from end boards to end boards, commitment to driving the net, and the most ardent forechecking and backchecking of all Jets liens — and Lowry’s absence should be the stuff of misery for Winnipeg as it tries to replace his contribution.
Kupari has been good — mostly — in two games between Niederreiter and Appleton in Lowry’s stead.
On Friday against Utah, his line split its minutes between Nick Bjugstad’s line with Jack McBain and Lawson Crouse and Logan Cooley’s line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. The Jets outshot Utah 8-1 in those minutes, tilting the ice to the effect of a 22-5 lead in shot attempts. On Sunday against Calgary, Kupari’s group got a heavy dose of Mikael Backlund and Nazem Kadri; it worked hard to create Mason Appleton’s goal but got beat for Kadri’s goal following a defensive zone faceoff. (Kupari won the draw but it hit the linesman’s skate, going straight to Jake Bean at the point.)
“We’ve mentioned that people have to step up with Adam Lowry being out — (Kupari) being one of them, playing between Apple and Nino,” Arniel said on Saturday. “He has the skill set — he can skate, he can shoot the puck, he has those things. The other things — faceoffs, penalty kill, playing against the other team’s top six — (he’s doing more) than he used to.”
This will be Kupari’s first season without any AHL time. He’s already made the leap to an everyday player and we’ve watched him make reads that match his footspeed. Asking him to anchor a middle six line could be a stretch come playoff time but his early success is a clear win for Winnipeg.
Perfetti explains the how of his battle-winning
Cole Perfetti scored his first career hat trick on Friday after making waves for his word choice at morning skate.
Perfetti said he wanted to be “a little prick” to play against. That word choice has gotten a lot of play but the substance behind the conversation is more interesting. At 5-foot-11, 185 pounds, Perfetti is not going to overpower his opponents along the boards or in front of the net. He needs to outwit them to do that — and that’s been an area of emphasis for Winnipeg’s coaching staff and of frequent conversations between Perfetti and Arniel.
“One of the things we talked about in the summer and then we talked about throughout the early part of the year is that he’s not going to win (physical battles) against some of these big defencemen or some big centremen,” Arniel said on Friday. “It’s all about him using his stick, using his quickness or getting inside faster or anticipating being on the right side of the puck before the other guy gets there.”
Perfetti gave us an example of that on his own hat trick goal.
If Nikolaj Ehlers held on to the puck at the end of Friday’s game and scored himself, Perfetti would have gotten an assist. Watch the full shift before his empty net goal; Perfetti is aware of pressure in front of him and behind him during Neal Pionk’s battle on the boards.
He sees Nick Schmaltz in front of him, is aware of Michael Kesselring’s pressure behind him, and makes a quick play to get the puck to safety outside the zone. This isn’t a “playing through hands” play but is an example of a fast read and fast hands that ensure a safe zone exit. The empty net goal is gravy — and yes, the hat trick probably has a bigger impact on his long-term confidence — but little plays like this are part of helping the team win, even on nights pucks don’t go in.
Arniel was clear in his praise — he said this is an aspect Perfetti’s game that has grown a lot over his time in the NHL — but how is a smaller player supposed to win those physical battles?
“It’s about getting in on (opponents’) hands,” Perfetti told The Athletic in a recent one-on-one interview. “When a guy comes to take my body out of the play — like, hit me — I can still make a play. I just have to make it before he hits me. But if a guy is into my area and on my hands and then he comes in and puts the body on me, then I don’t have a play to make.”
You see it all the time in other contexts: A defender swats at an opponent’s stick just as they’re shooting, thus disrupting the shot. Here, Perfetti is talking about playing through the opponents’ hands as he battles along the wall — something he’s having more success at this season, despite his lack of size.
“I’ve learned that it doesn’t have to be a massive hit. I just have to get a stick on his stick — either on the blade or in his hands — and then get my body on the inside of his hands,” Perfetti said. “I don’t have to kill the guy — I just have to get a bump on him and now he’s on my back and then I can make a play, beat him up the ice or whatever the case might be, I now have the advantage. I’ve been learning that and getting better at it, slowly.”
What does that look like in a game?
Watch how Perfetti handles a battle with Anze Kopitar in the first period of their game on Jan. 10. Kopitar is bigger, stronger and a Selke Trophy winner — he has the credentials to win this moment — but Perfetti takes the puck in a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it battle along the boards.
Did you catch it? As Perfetti goes into the corner with Kopitar, his first move is to swat at Kopitar’s stick, knocking it out of the way. His second move is to spin off of Kopitar before he can get pinned and it works, leading to a point shot by Logan Stanley.
It’s not a play you notice if you’re only focused on goal and assists. It’s the kind of play Perfetti is learning to make more often, and it’s making him a better all-around player.
“I feel like I’m playing some of the best hockey I’ve played since entering the league,” Perfetti said. “A lot of that has come from being around the puck more, getting in a little dirtier. Getting your nose overtop of it — that’s something for me that we’ve talked about with the coaches. Even though I’m not the biggest guy, I can get in there, disrupt pucks, get in a good stick.”
Perfetti will be measured in terms of his production. That’s a reality for No. 10 draft picks. Before his hat trick on Friday, he was helping his team outshoot and outscore opponents when he was on the ice. Even though he still does get pinned sometimes, he’s learning to cope with bigger opponents and that’s a big development.
The first line’s first slump ends with a bang-bang
Winnipeg’s two games against Calgary present a perfect bookend to this item.
Matt Coronato opened the scoring for the Flames on Jan. 18 via a puck Kyle Connor couldn’t get out of the Jets zone. It’s the sort of play Connor has struggled with in the past but hasn’t been haunted by as many times this season as last.
Matt Coronato connects for Calgary! ✅ #HockeyDay pic.twitter.com/z5tRb6CbPg
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 19, 2025
Connor had a few great offensive opportunities that game but couldn’t score, beginning a four-game stretch with zero points and five goals against at five-on-five. It seemed for a moment as though the January doldrums had begun, with the top line’s defensive shortcomings outshining its offensive brilliance for the first time all season. Gabriel Vilardi scored a goal and an assist during those four games while Scheifele managed one assist but those are not the numbers Winnipeg’s top line is used to.
Sunday’s rematch put an end to all that noise — and Connor was the one to kick it all off. Vilardi ate a check to get the puck to Connor in the neutral zone and then Connor scored his 27th goal in all kinds of style.
Kyle Connor splits the sea of red, then goes backhand shelf leaving a trail of Flames in his wake.
What a goal.pic.twitter.com/dXl9nrdxr6
— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) January 26, 2025
There were shifts in this game wherein Connor and Scheifele couldn’t get the puck out, but Eric Comrie had answers for those. As a result, Connor’s goal was just the beginning of a dominant offensive performance; he finished with a goal and two assists, Scheifele scored a goal and an assist, and Vilardi led the way with four points.
Asked about Connor’s wizardry on the 1-0 goal, Vilardi put it succinctly.
“Pretty nasty,” he said. “That’s what he does.”
Ehlers’ brilliance and Perfetti’s hat trick got the job done on Friday. The top line was offensively dominant on Sunday, as it’s been for so much of the season. Connor, Scheifele, Ehlers and Perfetti are all on pace to set new career highs in points — and Vilardi has already done so. If Winnipeg avoids its annual February trouble, plenty of teammates will join that list.
(Top photo of Cole Perfetti celebrating with Nikolaj Ehlers and Vladislav Namestnikov: Terrence Lee / Imagn Images)
