An inside look at what's really going on with Eagles-Commanders rematch in NFC title game

In a mere matter of days before the NFC championship game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, The Athletic has intercepted communication between two of its beat reporters, Brooks Kubena and Ben Standig, in which they enlisted one another as quasi-analysts to gain insight into the other’s teams.

Heinous? They await trial by their editors. Informative? Absolutely.

What follows is an unredacted account of their full exchange, in full and open transparency.

Kubena: What scares people about Jayden Daniels is that there doesn’t seem to be a glaring weakness. What actually rattles this rookie? Give me something. There must have been something the Eagles were doing right in the first three-quarters of their last meeting.

Standig: Yeah, sorry. I can’t help you here. Nothing rattles Daniels. He stated this often in camp, as a matter of fact, but never in a braggy way. My preseason feature began with an anecdote about when Daniels last became unnerved: “Jayden Daniels doesn’t get rattled in tackle football. His flag-playing days are another matter.” Yes, six-year-old Jayden had a little hissy fit. Since then, bupkis. Being around him all season, I can say he isn’t lying.

Washington is the most sum-of-the-parts team I can recall. You can count on one hand the number of Commanders that definitively would start for the Eagles. Daniels is top of the list. He isn’t the first rookie to reach this round, but the other quarterbacks had top-5 defenses. The Commanders rank 23rd in DVOA. Terry McLaurin is the lone star playmaker on offense. The run game lacked consistency. Washington allowed 50 sacks, tied for 25th. Some of those sacks are the quarterback, but you get my point. The rookie is a natural leader through his calm and camaraderie and teammates gravitate toward him.

Despite his NFL inexperience, Daniels rarely forces passes down the field and is willing to take underneath targets. He picks up yards on the ground with ease. Daniels avoids hunting them, yet understood in the Week 17 overtime win against Atlanta that his legs need to take over the game.

All that said, the Week 16 Eagles created problems for the Commanders despite Washington’s 36-33 comeback win. Philadelphia blitzed on 54.1 percent of dropbacks, the most against Daniels this season. His “Matrix”-like moves evade outside pressure like a walk in the park, but the pocket collapsing up front as the ends hem him, combined with him confidently remaining in the pocket to make a play, can lead to sacks or errant throws. Scheming overload zone pressures with tight throwing windows led to a 42.2 pressure rating, Washington’s fourth-highest rate allowed.

The Commanders committed five turnovers — two interceptions — and finished with a season-worst minus-3 turnover margin. In the fourth quarter, Daniels overcame those missteps with three of his career-best five touchdown passes.

Daniels’ 81.6 QB Rating in Week 11 was among his lowest of the season. Jalen Carter was a monster in Washington’s loss, part of a three-game slide that coincided with Daniels recovering from a Week 7 rib injury. Of course, blitzing Daniels, who has only nine interceptions in 19 games, has ended with more risk than reward for defense. In the divisional round, he finished 12 of 16, 191 yards and a touchdown against the blitz versus the Lions.

Bottom line: Take the idea of “getting the rookie rattled” out of the equation. Rather, think of the line by former ESPN anchor Dan Patrick: You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

Standig: Asking any team to stop Saquon Barkley feels like suggesting someone could prevent the sun from rising in the East. That said, Washington kept Barkley in check for the final three quarters in Week 16 after Hurts left with a concussion. Now, Hurts appears at least limited with the knee injury. Tell me why putting eight defenders in the box — and making Hurts beat you — is a more obvious approach than an effective one?

Kubena: Well, let’s start with two broad reasons. First, that approach doesn’t really do much to stop Barkley. Only four running backs averaged more yards per carry against eight-plus boxes than him during the regular season (4.5), according to TruMedia. Second, Hurts may not be very efficient passing against such looks (42.3 completion percentage), but, with three touchdown passes and no picks, the Eagles are more than capable of making defenses pay for playing them this way.

To be more precise, the Eagles are very good at matching their zone-read game with run-block schemes that flip the advantage against eight-plus boxes. Here’s a worst-case scenario for that defensive approach. It’s Week 12. It’s Eagles-Rams in SoFi Stadium. It’s third-and-6 at Philadelphia’s 28 on the right hash. The Rams, trailing 30-14 with 2:54 left in the game, put eight defenders in the box against a run-oriented 13 personnel look from the Eagles.

Already, the Eagles like their chances. Their arrangement has packed the Rams defense together in a nice contained box. Hurts, upon the snap, freezes a few of the defenders on the right side just by representing a threat to run. By the time Hurts chooses to give, tight end Grant Calcaterra and right guard Mekhi Becton have already pulled to the opposite edge. Left tackle Jordan Mailata and tight end Dallas Goedert have cratered down to the left edge, which leaves only two more defenders for Calcaterra and Becton to clear.

Boom. Barkley finds the hole. He’s gone. There’s a 72-yard touchdown run for an MVP application that’ll likely be passed over for a quarterback who’s no longer in the playoffs.

Offensive line coach/run game coordinator Jeff Stoutland’s influence on this team can’t be understated. Yes, there’s Barkley. But Barkley chose to sign with the Eagles partly because of the organization’s long-established reputation for fielding one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. Its Pro Bowl members credit their development to what they call Stoutland University. The Eagles field multiple blocking techniques, including frequent pullers, partly due to the leverage points Stoutland identifies.

Stoutland, Barkley, Hurts and the Eagles collectively have made defenses regret fielding eight-plus boxes more often than it’s worked out for their opponents. The Commanders know this themselves. During their first meeting in Week 11, Barkley turned a toss play against an eight-man box into a 39-yard touchdown to go up 26-10 with 4:45 left in the game. Washington held Barkley to five yards on five carries against eight-plus boxes in their second meeting, but four were after Hurts exited the game. Hurts said Sunday he’s confident he’ll play in the NFC title game. The zone-read game will remain part of Philadelphia’s offensive approach so long as Hurts is available.

And, if the Eagles decide to pass in such situations, crowded boxes, if matched with man coverage, are prime targets for Philadelphia’s favored mesh routes. DeVonta Smith scored a 45-yard touchdown against the Cleveland Browns after getting a pick on a mid-range crosser. Only the Baltimore Ravens, who have four Pro Bowl defenders, had sustained success fielding eight-man boxes against Barkley. The Commanders simply don’t have the defensive talent to offset the risk they’d be taking.

Kubena: One of the reasons the Eagles escaped an upset by the Rams was because they forced field goals on three of the five times Los Angeles reached their red zone. The Commanders scored touchdowns in the red zone at the NFL’s sixth-highest rate (63.4 percent) and were 3-of-4 against the Eagles in such situations last time. Do you still like Washington’s matchup there? Why have they been so good in that zone, and is there anything the Eagles can take away?

Standig: Have I mentioned the quarterback’s poise? Daniels’ dual threat prowess also puts defenses in conflict. It’s one thing to have a delayed reaction if he breaks outside on a read-option at midfield. Do that inside the 10, and Daniels will turn the corner before being touched. Focus on the ground game; he will beat you with precision passing. Daniels has 19 touchdown passes and one interception on 66 red-zone attempts.

This area of the field is where tight end Zach Ertz shines. The 34-year-old won’t evade pass defenders with his quicks but repeatedly beats coverage off the first move and wins in traffic. The 6-foot-5 target’s 62.5 contested catch rate ranked fifth among tight ends. Not surprisingly, all eight of his touchdowns were in the red zone, including a 5-yarder versus the Lions. The inside route is an Ertz staple this season.

McLaurin’s best NFL season came with 11 of 15 touchdown grabs in the red zone with the most recent coming in the wild-card round win over the Buccaneers. McLaurin’s precise route-running creates space, but his ability to attack the ball in flight stands out, as does a 67.6 percent contested catch rate, ranking third among all receivers. 

Along with Daniels’ legs, Brian Robinson’s power style is a tight-quarters asset and Austin Ekeler hands and shiftiness make him an excellent safety valve.

Standig: Philly won the A.J. Brown-Marshon Lattimore matchup in Week 16 (though Lattimore had some positive moments early and then left late with a hamstring injury). That was also only Lattimore’s second game with the Commanders after they acquired him in a trade with the Saints. They’ve since deployed him a few different ways, with varying success. He traveled the field while shadowing Mike Evans, who had seven catches, 92 yards and a touchdown for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC wild-card game. Lattimore was more effective playing on one side against the Detroit Lions in the divisional round. Part of me feels like the winner of the Brown-Lattimore matchup wins this game. What do you think the Eagles approach is for the rematch?

Kubena: I’m instantly inclined to feel resistance to this premise. Brown had one catch for 10 yards in the NFC wild-card game against the Green Bay Packers. And he had two catches for 14 yards in the divisional round against the Rams. Yet, the Eagles won both games. It’s an absurdity that can only be explained by Barkley’s breakaway runs and a dominant defense that’s forced five turnovers in the playoffs. But then I’m reminded that it is indeed an absurdity, and, therefore, can’t truly be relied upon if Brown again has nominal production this weekend. (Or can it?)

Regardless, the Eagles were trying to get the ball to Brown against the Rams. Hurts targeted his top receiver seven times. Brown dropped two of them, including what would’ve been a huge gain near the front pylon. Brown said “you’ve got to give this game a pass” due to its snowy conditions. But he’s also been managing a knee issue since popping up on the injury report on Dec. 19. He caught 8 of 15 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders three days later, but he’s totaled six catches for 60 yards in the three games since. He’s sat out a handful of practices throughout the playoffs within a load-management program with the team’s training staff. Brown has said he’s been playing through the injury. I’m wondering how much of his minimal production is due to him not being 100 percent.

Brown is at his best for the Eagles when he can exploit one-on-one matchups. Hurts often targets Brown on slants in such situations. Lattimore, by playing Brown tightly in their last matchup, deflected a slant on the first throw of the game. Can Brown, in presumably better weather conditions, create separation this go-round? The Eagles ought to build a game plan believing he can. There’s no instance when Brown is on the field that Hurts should not first look his way. But there should be more emphasis this week for Hurts to have further faith in the targets deeper into his progression — particularly Jahan Dotson.

When Dotson was wide open on a shallow crosser, Hurts instead forced a second-and-8 throw to a tightly covered Brown in the second quarter that fell incomplete. The Eagles punted two plays later. Dotson was again open downfield on a third-quarter bootleg. Hurts instead checked down to Dallas Goedert for a five-yard gain. The Eagles eventually settled for a 44-yard field goal.

But such a suggestion may be beyond the character of this offense. The Eagles have won plenty of football games with Hurts zeroing in on Brown, Smith and Goedert. They’ll likely feel no regret if they lose with Hurts zeroing in on them, too.

Kubena: I see 45 points against the Lions and think “that won’t happen against the Eagles. They force three-and-outs and grind the clock out with their run game.” Am I wrong here?

Standig: Well, kind of. Keeping the ball away from Daniels is a sound strategy.  More possessions are always better. The Commanders do fine with what they get. Washington isn’t an explosive offense but a highly efficient unit. In the regular season, they ranked:

  • Second in drive score percentage (50.0)
  • Tied for second in first downs per drive (2.2)
  • Fourth in points per drive (2.72)
  • Fourth in “successful play” percentage (50.9)
  • Fifth in touchdowns per drive 
  • Sixth in time of possession per drive (2:59)
  • Sixth in third down percentage (45.6)

The Commanders were also best in fourth-down conversion percentage (87.0, 20-of-23), highlighting Quinn’s aggressive streak. And yet, Washington was 18th in explosive play percentage (10.8). They didn’t wow the opponents play-to-play but wore them down. 

The Commanders have punted once and have yet to commit a turnover in two playoff games.

Here’s the thing: Washington is a time-of-possession boss as well. Including the playoffs, they are 11-0 when winning the TOP battle — neither Eagles game made the list. The Commanders own two of the top six TOP games in regulation this season and three of nine, including overtime. They also have a knack for stifling the opponent’s momentum with long drives after a touchdown.

Washington led Detroit 31-21 at halftime. After the Lions pulled within three on the second half’s opening possession, much to the delight of the NOISY home crowd, the Commanders, on their next drive, executed a 15-play, 70-yard drive that took 8:28 off the clock and ended a Brian Robinson touchdown run with 13:28 remaining in the fourth quarter. 

Keeping Daniels on the sideline is ideal, and the Eagles have the running back and offensive to accomplish that. Having and doing are not the same thing.

Standig: Quinyon Mitchell quieted McLaurin in the first meeting (one catch, 10 yards). McLaurin was better in the rematch (five catches, 60 yards, a touchdown) but it still wasn’t a crazy stat line. What’s the deal with the rookie corner’s shoulder injury and how can he put the clamps on a wide receiver with nine touchdowns in the last eight games?

Kubena: Mitchell told Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Olivia Reiner in the locker room after Sunday’s game that he’s “going to be good.” Nick Sirianni isn’t one to offer such public definitives on injuries. But the expectation is that Mitchell will play. He made a strong case for defensive rookie of the year. Only Denzel Ward forced more incompletions than Mitchell this season, according to Pro Football Focus. There are myriad reasons beyond that specific cornerback position for why Philadelphia’s defensive success rate is higher when Mitchell is not on the field (67.3) than when he is (60.3), per TruMedia, but it’s partly because they have a solid backup in Isaiah Rodgers.

I spent some time in the offseason reporting on Mitchell’s acquisition, and Toledo defensive coordinator Vince Kehres told me they often placed Mitchell on an island in “catch-man” techniques in which Mitchell “caught” receivers in stride and basically played man coverage thereafter. That allowed Toledo to play aggressively with their safeties and challenge and rob throws in the middle zones. That usage also rejected concerns raised by draft analysts about whether Mitchell could thrive in press-man coverage. Eagles general manager Howie Roseman was himself convinced when Mitchell locked down top receivers at the Senior Bowl.

Mitchell has been a dependable fit within Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s system. Fangio doesn’t travel his cornerbacks. Mitchell has played the entirety of his wide corner snaps on the right side. Darius Slay has played the entirety of his wide corner snaps on the left. If McLaurin ends up on Mitchell’s side, so be it — in terms of how Fangio has been deploying his defense.

Looking back at the tape, Mitchell played multiple techniques against McLaurin. Catch-man. Press man. If you look at the Week 11 game, the Commanders got strategic and cleared the left sideline for a 34-yard swing pass to Ekeler by clearing McLaurin downfield while being matched up in press man with Mitchell. I don’t think that (nor other plays) will change how Fangio uses his corners. He seems to believe both can cover McLaurin from either side. Slay stuck with McLaurin on a third-and-4 mesh route in Week 11 that fell incomplete partly because defensive tackle Milton Williams was in Daniels’ face. The entire defense supports the approach. The average time to throw against the Eagles defense (2.82 seconds) is lower than the NFL average (2.94), per TruMedia.

The majority of McLaurin’s production in their Week 16 meeting came from his third-and-8, 32-yard touchdown reception in the second quarter. Mitchell played soft coverage and positioned himself to take away the inside of the field. But Mitchell gave McLaurin far too much room to work with along the sideline, from the numbers all the way to the boundary. Daniels threw a dime while getting hit. Since that play, Mitchell hasn’t allowed a catch above 12 yards, according to Pro Football Focus. Has the rookie learned enough lessons for a third meeting?

Standig: Washington has turned fourth down into just another offensive down to call a play. They converted an absurd 25 of 28 of their fourth downs during the season, with Daniels 8-of-8 passing. Then they went 3 of 4 against the Lions. What has been Philly’s approach on offense and what works or doesn’t on defense?

Kubena: I asked Fangio why he thinks Washington’s been so efficient on fourth downs this season. “Quarterback,” he said, simply. “And the talent around him.” Defending fourth down plays is one of the few things this Eagles defense does poorly. They’ve allowed first downs on 19 of their 30 fourth-down plays, a 63.3 conversion percentage that’s tied for ninth-worst in the NFL. There’s some depth to that number. Only the Vikings (35) and Bills (32) have defended more fourth-down plays than the Eagles — a trend that suggests their opponents are more frequently embracing a four-down approach to gain an advantage against playoff-bound teams.

Here’s what I find interesting: The Eagles were either fielding their nickel or dime packages in all but one of those 19 conversions, and 11 of those were fourth-and-3 or shorter. The Eagles had eight stops on fourth-and-2 or shorter in the regular season, and they fielded their base package on two of them. In other words, if the Commanders were to force the Eagles into pass-oriented defenses, they’d already have a two-thirds shot at converting on fourth-and-3 or shorter. That’s a significant advantage when Kliff Kingsbury could factor into his game plan. Think of how much changes in certain scenarios when you just need to gain seven yards in your first three plays.

Fangio said when teams like Washington are so successful, it can sometimes affect how he calls a defense on third-down situations, “depending on what the third down is, from a yardage standpoint.” The Commanders were trailing 27-14 when Daniels scrambled for 29 yards on a fourth-and-11 play from the Philadelphia 41 — a play that produced a touchdown and began Washington’s comeback. It’d be absurd to suggest the Eagles should’ve played third-and-11 more aggressively to come up with a sack or turnover just to eliminate the possibility of Daniels scrambling on them. Sometimes a talent like Daniels just makes an absurd play, and it’s clear Fangio respects the rookie for his proficiency to reduce sound defensive play calls into rubble.

“He’s a young quarterback by birth certificate,” Fangio said. “Not by tape.”

(Top photo of Jayden Daniels and Saquon Barkley: Eric Hartline / Imagn Images)



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